Tuesday 27 March 2012

Health Care Debate: It Might Come Down To One Justice

By R.J. Taylor-Hahn
The Press

The Supreme Court embarked Monday on a three-day examination of the Affordable Care Act “ObamaCare.” The court’s opinion, expected by the end of June, could well be its most significant statement on the limits of congressional regulatory power since the 1930s when the justices struck down and then upheld President Roosevelt’s New Deal.
Supporters say they expect to win over at least one conservative vote. Up for grabs, they say, are Chief Justice John Roberts, Justice Anthony Kennedy, and maybe even the court’s conservative stalwart, Justice Antonin Scalia.



Liberal justices sure to uphold the law:

Justice Stephen Breyer
Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg
Justice Sonia Sotomayor
Justice Elena Kagan

Conservative justices sure to strike down the law:

Justice Samuel Alito
Justice Clarence Thomas
Justices in the middle:
Chief Justice John Roberts: A staunch conservative, but he joined the majority in the 2010 Comstock decision, which said Congress has the power to legislate civil commitment of convicted sex offenders. Roberts may wait to see how the other justices vote and then join the majority, which automatically gives him the power to decide who writes the court’s opinion.
Justice Anthony Kennedy: A California conservative who is looked upon as the court’s crucial swing vote. He joined the majority in the San Antonio-related Lopez ruling of 1995, the first in decades to place limits on the power of Congress to legislate under the Constitution’s commerce clause. But he wrote that such powers would be sustained if it clear that an “economic activity substantially affects interstate commerce.”
Justice Antonin Scalia: The heart and soul of the court’s conservative wing. But Scalia voted with the majority in the 2005 Raich case, in which the court ruled the Constitution’s commerce clause permits federal enforcement of U.S. drug laws in California and other states permitting medical marijuana.
On Monday the justices started by handing down opinions before delving into 90 minutes of argument. But today’s arguments do not focus on whether the Affordable Care Act is constitutional. Instead, the justices are considering whether the legal challenge to it has arrived too soon.
The problem is the Anti-Injunction Act, which dates to 1867. It says, “No suit for the purpose of restraining the assessment or collection of any tax shall be maintained in any court by any person.”
How does this figure in the healthcare case?
It could block a suit against this key part of the healthcare law if it imposes a tax. The law seems to say that no one can sue over a tax provision until he or she has paid the tax.
How is the Affordable Care Act a tax law?
During the debate over it, President Obama insisted it did not impose new taxes. However, people who do not have minimum health coverage in 2014 will be assessed a “penalty” to be paid on their tax return, which will be due in April 2015.
Who asserted that the court should postpone a decision until the first taxpayer has paid a penalty and then sued for a refund?
Surprisingly, no one did. The Republican challengers and the Obama administration agreed on this issue. They said the healthcare law was not a tax law, and they said it was important that the courts rule now on the constitutionality of its provisions. Federal and state health officials need to know whether they should or should not plan to implement the complex new law.
Why then is the issue before the Supreme Court?
Because the justices believe they may not rule on an issue if the law says they should not.
Is the high court likely to rule that the suits are premature?
It is quite possible. Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. has been wary of the court’s ruling too soon on broad questions. And Judge Brett Kavanaugh of the U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington, a friend of Roberts’ and former clerk to Justice Anthony M. Kennedy, wrote an opinion in November saying the court would be wise to put off a decision.
What would happen if the court decides the Anti-Injunction Act prevents a ruling now on the individual mandate?
The justices will meet behind closed doors Friday to discuss the entire case and cast their votes. If five or more believe the new law imposes a tax, they will write an opinion to explain their decision. The constitutionality of the individual mandate would remain unsolved. However, the justices would still be free to rule on the states’ rights challenge to the Medicaid expansion, the issue to be debated Wednesday.
Justice Anthony Kennedy is the court's swing vote, and which side he lands on could decide one of the most important cases in decades, a choice with not only profound policy implications but one that could alter the course of the 2012 presidential election.
"It's a very good time to be Anthony Kennedy, there's no doubt about that," said Jeffrey Toobin, a legal analyst for the New Yorker and CNN. "You have a court with four conservatives and four liberals and that leaves only one vote in play."
Supreme Court Justice Anthony M. Kennedy

Kennedy more often than not votes with the other justices appointed by Republicans. He helped invalidate a handgun ban in the District of Columbia and joined the majority in Bush vs. Gore, which ended Florida's recount in the 2000 presidential election. He has voted against affirmative action and is generally a proponent of state sovereignty. 
But Kennedy has a centrist, libertarian streak that has led to voting to protect flag burning as free speech and for gay rights. A prominent evangelical leader once deemed him "the most dangerous man in America." He is viewed as open-minded but also capricious and overly self-aware.
Early in his tenure, Kennedy joined a 5-4 decision upholding the death penalty for juveniles. But in 2005 he wrote the majority opinion outlawing the practice, saying public opinion had shifted. He wrote the majority opinion in 2007 upholding the partial-birth abortion ban despite signing onto a 1992 watershed decision upholding the central element of Roe vs. Wade.
"At various points in his judicial career, Justice Kennedy has managed to infuriate pretty much everyone, all across the political spectrum," then-court nominee Elena Kagan said at a 2006 Harvard alumni luncheon. "What Justice Kennedy has done, time and time again, is to think for himself."
Speculation is rampant about the outcome of the health care case, and other justices are considered potential swing votes, including Antonin Scalia, who like Kennedy is an appointee of Reagan.
President Barack Obama's legal team, in briefings submitted to the high court in advance of oral arguments, has used Scalia's words in a 2005 decision that upheld the federal government's right to prevent Californians from growing marijuana for personal medical use even though state law allowed it.
The court ruled it was within the government's right to regulate economic activity, a central element of the commerce clause in question in the health care case brought by 26 states and formally named Department of Health and Human Services, et al. vs. Florida, et al.
Kennedy was in the majority on the 2005 case but has sent mixed signals on commerce clause issues, making it difficult to predict his thinking in a case monumentally different in scale.
Kennedy, who is Catholic, grew up in Sacramento, Calif., the son of a lawyer and lobbyist. The family was friendly with Gov. Earl Warren, who went on to be the liberal lion of the Supreme Court. Kennedy worked as a legislative page as a boy and on oil rigs in the summer as a teen. Kennedy was still living in his childhood home when President Reagan picked him in 1987 after the failed nomination of Robert Bork and then a second candidate, Douglas Ginsburg, who withdrew after his admission of past marijuana use.
Reagan held out the squeaky-clean Kennedy as someone who would be popular across party lines and Kennedy was unanimously confirmed, a show of support unfathomable in today's hyperpartisan Washington.
Over the years he has developed a reputation for sweeping prose about liberty that is sometimes mocked or seen as self-aggrandizing. "At the heart of liberty is the right to define one's own concept of existence, of meaning, of the universe, and of the mystery of human life,'' Kennedy said from the bench during the 1992 decision upholding the constitutionality of abortion. Scalia in dissent ridiculed the "epic tone."
But Kennedy's earnestness goes unquestioned. Former clerks say he stressed an open dialogue and wanted his viewpoint to be challenged. "He's concerned with the arc of constitutional law and wants to get it right," said Orin Kerr, who teaches law at George Washington University.
"I think you have a duty to keep an open mind," Kennedy said in 2005. "That's not indecisiveness. That's just a commitment to the tradition of the law."
• • •

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, passed without a single Republican vote, remains polarizing two years later. The case before Kennedy and his colleagues will be career defining and could either entrench the law or set off a bitter war over alternatives. The decision could come down in late June, and likely will be a major issue in Obama's re-election bid and congressional contests.
Kennedy has left signs — but no decisive answers — in several key cases that will factor into the next few days.
In 1995, the court ruled in the first case since the New Deal to set limits on Congress' power under the commerce clause. The decision in United States vs. Lopez overturned the federal ban on gun possession near schools. Kennedy, who had displayed a strong belief in federalism over the years, joined the majority but wrote a concurring opinion that is likely to play heavily in his thinking in the current case:
"The history of the judicial struggle to interpret the commerce clause during the transition from the economic system the Founders knew to the single, national market still emergent in our own era counsels great restraint before the court determines that the clause is insufficient to support an exercise of the national power."
In the 2005 marijuana case from California, Kennedy joined Scalia in the majority opinion upholding federal law. Even if the marijuana was for personal use, the court found it was still a commodity and subject to regulation under the commerce clause.
Frank Colucci, a political science professor at Purdue University Calumet and author of a book on Kennedy, said the health care case will test the conflict inherent in the justice's thinking over the years: his belief in judicial limits on federal power but a recognition of the practical conception of commerce.
"That sets up the two main arguments in this case," Colucci said. "The people who want to strike down the mandate will give an argument that if you allow this to stand, there are no limits on what Congress can do. The people who want to uphold the mandate will say you can't strike this without undermining the foundations of the federal power to regulate commerce that the court has accepted since 1937."
Six hours have been set aside for arguments, the most in four decades. The hearings will not be televised, but the court has taken the unusual step of agreeing to release same-day audio recordings "because of the extraordinary public interest."
And all eyes will be on the man in the middle.
Kennedy, who likes to listen to opera at home while he ponders difficult cases, may relish the position but can't stand the label he has earned.
Here’s what veteran Court-watchers will be looking for:
First, do Justice Scalia and Chief Justice Roberts tip their hands on the AIA issue? Scalia is widely viewed as the most demanding when it comes to the federal courts’ power to decide particular cases, believing that the courts should not thrust themselves into controversial matters where not authorized to do so.  And the Chief is widely viewed—not altogether correctly—as a “minimalist” who favors narrow decisions that, when reasonably possible, duck controversial issues.  If Scalia or the Chief signal their belief that the AIA bars the mandate challenge at this time, that could carry weight with their colleagues on the Court. I’ll be watching the Chief, who often acts as a traffic cop at oral argument, to see how he steers the discussion.


Second, what do the justices’ questions hint about whether the states are covered by the AIA?  The district court and the Eleventh Circuit that considered the 26-state lawsuit never considered the states’ legal standing to challenge the mandate because it was enough that individual plaintiffs had standing to support the challenge.  But questions by the justices about the states’ standing could point to an easy way through the AIA thicket because the states (if they have standing) should not be subject to the AIA for two reasons.  A decision on this ground, however, also could make it easier in the future for the states to sue to enforce limits on federal power, much like last Term’s decision in Bond v. United States.

Third, what about the merits? Lawyers typically distinguish between preliminary issues in a case, like the AIA, and the heart of the lawsuit, or merits.  But the barrier between the two can break down, and justice are often eager to get beyond the preliminaries to the interesting bits.  We “[s]ometimes have to peek at the merits to see if there’s standing,” an impatient Justice Kennedy said to counsel at oral argument last Term.  It would come as little surprise if the justices—and Justice Kennedy in particular—want to “peek” a bit at the issues to be considered in coming days, particularly regarding the constitutionality of the individual mandate.  If so, how many justices will bring up the President’s infamous statement to George Stephanopolous that the mandate is not, in fact, a tax?
Fourth, does the Court care about the consequences if it declines to rule on the mandate at this time? Deciding that the AIA bars the most important issue in this litigation may mean that ObamaCare goes into full effect before the Court has an opportunity to address its lawfulness in 2015 or beyond.  ObamaCare alone is expensive enough; an additional four or more years of uncertainty as to whether the Court will strike it down will cause even more pain.  To what end?  Many of the justices are, to varying extents, pragmatists, and they will want to know what happens between now and 2015.  If they buy the argument of exploding costs and other problems, that may influence what they think about the AIA and ObamaCare as a whole.
Anthony M. Kennedy
Born: Sacramento, Calif., July 23, 1936.
Family: Married, three children.
Education: B.A. from Stanford University and the London School of Economics; LL.B. from Harvard Law School.
Work history: Private practice in San Francisco, Sacramento 1961-1975; professor at McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, 1965-1988; appointed to the United States Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit in 1975; President Ronald Reagan nominated him as an associate justice of the Supreme Court, and he took his seat on Feb. 18, 1988.
THE CASE BEFORE THE SUPREME COURT
KENNEDY AND THE COMMERCE CLAUSE
A central issue in the U.S. Supreme Court case on the national health care law is the requirement that most Americans carry insurance, the "individual mandate," or face a penalty. And it will hinge largely on the commerce clause in the Constitution, which states that "Congress shall have the power … to regulate Commerce with foreign Nations, and among the several States, and with the Indian Tribes."
Proponents of the law say the government has the right to regulate matters that have an effect on the national economy. Opponents say it's a broad overreach. What's next, they say, mandates to eat broccoli or buy a certain car?
As three days of oral arguments open Monday, intense focus will be on one member of the court in particular, Justice Anthony Kennedy. Often the swing vote, Kennedy has sided in favor of the commerce clause and against it, making it difficult to determine his thinking in the landmark case.
In United States vs. Lopez he joined the majority in striking down a federal law that made it a federal crime to possess a firearm in a school zone. The court said it had nothing to do with commerce. Kennedy agreed but wrote a concurring opinion that said he had reservations because the nation was moving toward a "single, national market."
But in other instances Kennedy has joined the court in upholding federal legislation. In Gonzalez vs. Raich, the majority opinion said the federal government could control the cultivation of marijuana at home for personal use (the case dealt with medical uses in California) because the Controlled Substances Act dealt with production, consumption and distribution of the drug "for which there is an established, and lucrative, interstate market." The opinion said activities regulated by the federal law are "quintessentially economic."

Below is a link to the transcript from the oral Health care Supreme Court arguments, today 3.26.2012

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